Welcome to Effervescent Ideas

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Welcome to my blog. I hope to keep you intrigued and entertained through my journey into how data is shaping our world today and tomorrow.

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Why are people leaving Illinois?

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Want to better your odds of winning a TV Elimination show? Win the first Challenge

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In an elimination-style show, how important is it to win the very first challenge? Does winning this challenge better your odds of winning the entire show? While every show is unique, after digging into four different popular elimination-style shows, my answer is a definitive  YES .   To better answer this question, I did a deeper dive into four different elimination style shows: Top Chef, RuPaul's Drag Race, The Bachelor, and the Bachelorette. Top Chef and RuPaul both determine a winner and loser for each episode. The Bachelor and Bachelorette do not have weekly "winners", so I am using the recently added "First Impression Rose" as a proxy for a first episode "winner".  I collected data on each of these shows: 54 seasons total, and 17 of those seasons were won by an individual who won the first challenge, corresponding to a 31% winning ratio. These shows and seasons have an average of roughly 14 contestants per season, so a typical individual has abou...
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